IMF：新冠复苏之路将漫长坎坷且充满不确定

（中英文来自IMF官网）

https://www.imf.org/zh/News/Articles/2020/10/13/blog-a-long-uneven-and-uncertain-ascent

漫长坎坷且不确定的攀行之路

作者：Gita Gopinath
2020年10月12日

新冠疫情继续扩散，死亡人数迄今已逾百万。应对新冠疫情是一场空前的挑战，世界正在做出调整。随着封锁措施放松、各国中央银行和政府以前所未有的规模迅速部署政策支持，全球经济正在从今年上半年的衰退深渊中恢复。就业率在危机最严重阶段大幅下降之后，现在已经部分回升。

但危机远未结束。就业率仍大大低于疫情暴发前的水平，劳动力市场两极化日趋严重，低收入劳动者、年轻人和妇女受到更为严重的冲击。贫困人口的处境进一步恶化，预计近九千万人今年将陷入极端贫困之中。从这场灾难中恢复的道路很可能漫长坎坷、充满不确定。重要的是尽可能避免过早撤回财政和货币政策支持。

在最新一期《世界经济展望》中，我们仍预测2020年经济处于深度衰退。我们预计2020年全球增长率为-4.4%，相较6月《世界经济展望更新》中的预测上调0.8个百分点。做出这一调整是因为二季度的衰退不如预期严重，并且有迹象显示三季度复苏有所加强。而这在一定程度上被一些新兴和发展中经济体前景的恶化所抵消。 2021年全球增长率预计将回升到5.2%，比6月的预测低0.2个百分点。

中国今年的产出预计将超过2019年水平，而除中国之外，其他发达经济体以及新兴市场和发展中经济体的产出预计甚至在明年都将低于2019年水平。相比制造业带动的经济体，更多依赖人员接触密集的服务业的国家以及石油出口国将经历更为疲软的复苏。

这场疫情导致发达经济体与新兴和发展中经济体（不包括中国）面对不同的收入前景，这一趋势预计将进一步加剧。我们预测，发达经济体2020年增长率为-5.8%，2021年将回升到3.9%.我们下调了新兴市场和发展中国家（不包括中国）的增长预测，预计其2020年增长率为-5.7%,2021年回升至5%。新兴市场和发展中经济体（不包括中国）2020-2021年人均收入累计增长率预计将低于发达经济体。

这场危机在中期内很可能给经济留下创伤，因为劳动力市场的恢复需要时间，不确定性和资产负债表问题抑制了投资，学校停课对人力资本造成损害。我们预计，在2021年反弹之后，全球增速将在中期逐步放缓至3.5%左右的水平。产出相对于疫情暴发前预测水平的累计损失将从2020-2021年的11万亿美元上升到2020-2025年的28万亿美元。这将使所有国家提高平均生活水平的进程出现严重倒退。

经济前景仍面临巨大的不确定性，既有上行风险，也有下行风险。面对疫情卷土重来，一些国家再度实施了局部封锁措施。 如果这种形势恶化，疗法和疫苗不能取得有效进展，那么经济活动将受到严重冲击，并可能通过金融市场的剧烈动荡而加剧。贸易和投资限制措施增加，地缘政治不确定性上升，这些因素都将损害经济复苏。 从上行方面看，如果能更快、更广泛地提供病毒检测、疗法、疫苗和额外的政策刺激，经济表现会显著改善。

全球范围内，各国政府提供了近12万亿美元的大规模财政支持，中央银行普遍采取了降息、注入流动性和购买资产等措施，这些行动挽救了生命和生计，避免了一场金融灾难。

需要采取更多行动

为了确保持久复苏，仍需采取更多措施。 首先，需要加强国际合作，结束这场卫生危机。在开发病毒检测、治疗和疫苗等方面正在取得重大进展，只有各国密切合作，才能有充足的生产并广泛分发到世界各地。 我们估计，相比基线情景，如果医疗解决方案能更快、更广泛地得以提供，那么全球收入到2025年底将累计增加近9万亿美元，这会提高所有国家的收入并缩小收入差距。

其次，政策必须尽可能侧重于减轻这场危机造成的持久经济破坏。各国政府应通过针对性强的现金转移支付、工资补贴和失业保险，继续提供收入支持。为了防范大面积破产并确保劳动者能够重返生产岗位，在可能的情况下，应通过推迟缴税、延期偿债和注资等措施，继续向脆弱但可持续经营的企业提供支持。

随时间推移，一旦复苏企稳，各国应逐步调整政策，帮助劳动者从长期内可能收缩的部门（与出行相关的产业）向正在增长的部门（电子商务）转移。在调整过程中，各国还需通过收入转移支付和技能再培训项目为劳动者提供支持。为支持劳动力在部门间的转移，还需采取措施加快破产程序和处置机制，以有效解决企业丧失偿付能力问题。在利率低、不确定性高的环境下，推动公共绿色基础设施投资建设能够大幅增加就业和加快经济复苏，同时也能对减少碳排放发挥重要作用。

新兴市场和发展中经济体正不得不以更少的资源来应对这场危机，因为其中很多经济体受到债务高企和借款成本上升的限制。这些经济体需要优先安排关键的医疗卫生支出和对贫困人口的转移支付，确保最高效地使用资金。它们还需继续获得国际赠款和优惠融资形式的支持，一些国家还需要债务减免。在债务不可持续的情况下，应尽快对债务进行重组，以释放资金应对危机。

最后，在制定政策时，应着眼于让各经济体走上更为强劲、公平和可持续增长之路。在全球范围内放松货币政策的行动对于促进经济复苏至关重要，但同时应采取措施防止金融风险在中期内积累，并且应不惜一切代价维护中央银行的独立性。必要的财政支出和产出崩溃已将全球主权债务推升至占全球GDP100%的创纪录水平。尽管低利率环境加上2021年经济增长的预期回升将使许多国家的债务水平趋于稳定，但所有国家都应实施中期财政框架，增强对债务可持续性的信心。各国政府今后可能需要提高税收累进性，保证企业公平纳税，同时消除浪费性支出。

医疗卫生、数字基础设施、绿色基础设施和教育等领域的投资有助于实现富有成效、包容、可持续的经济增长。应扩大社会安全网，消除社会保障缺口，以保护最弱势的群体，同时支持短期内的经济活动。

这是“大萧条”以来最严重的危机，我们需要在国家和国际层面上实施重大政策创新，促使经济从这场灾难中恢复。挑战是艰巨的。但我们有理由抱有希望。超常规的应对政策（包括欧盟的抗疫恢复基金，以及使用数字技术提供社会援助）再一次有力证明，设计完善的政策能够保护民众，维护我们共同的经济福祉。自疫情暴发以来，国际货币基金组织以空前的速度向81个成员国提供了融资，向低收入国家提供了债务减免并呼吁延长暂停偿债期限，另外，还呼吁改革国际债务架构。在这些行动的基础之上，应对危机下一阶段的政策应致力于实现全球经济的持久改善，为所有人创造繁荣的未来。

英文原文：

https://blogs.imf.org/2020/10/13/a-long-uneven-and-uncertain-ascent/

A Long, Uneven and Uncertain Ascent

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread with over 1 million lives tragically lost so far. Living with the novel coronavirus has been a challenge like no other, but the world is adapting. As a result of eased lockdowns and the rapid deployment of policy support at an unprecedented scale by central banks and governments around the world, the global economy is coming back from the depths of its collapse in the first half of this year. Employment has partially rebounded after having plummeted during the peak of the crisis.

This crisis is however far from over. Employment remains well below pre-pandemic levels and the labor market has become more polarized with low-income workers, youth, and women being harder hit. The poor are getting poorer with close to 90 million people expected to fall into extreme deprivation this year. The ascent out of this calamity is likely to be long, uneven, and highly uncertain. It is essential that fiscal and monetary policy support are not prematurely withdrawn, as best possible.

In our latest World Economic Outlook, we continue to project a deep recession in 2020. Global growth is projected to be -4.4 percent, an upward revision of 0.8 percentage points compared to our June update. This upgrade owes to somewhat less dire outcomes in the second quarter, as well as signs of a stronger recovery in the third quarter, offset partly by downgrades in some emerging and developing economies. In 2021 growth is projected to rebound to 5.2 percent, -0.2 percentage points below our June projection.

Except for China, where output is expected to exceed 2019 levels this year, output in both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies is projected to remain below 2019 levels even next year. Countries that rely more on contact-intensive services and oil exporters face weaker recoveries compared to manufacturing-led economies.

The divergence in income prospects between advanced economies and emerging and developing economies (excluding China) triggered by this pandemic is projected to worsen. We are upgrading our forecast for advanced economies for 2020 to -5.8 percent, followed by a rebound in growth to 3.9 percent in 2021. For emerging market and developing countries (excluding China) we have a downgrade with growth projected to be -5.7 percent in 2020 and then a recovery to 5 percent in 2021. With this, the cumulative growth in per capita income for emerging-market and developing economies (excluding China) over 2020–21 is projected to be lower than that for advanced economies.

This crisis will likely leave scars well into the medium term as labor markets take time to heal, investment is held back by uncertainty and balance sheet problems, and lost schooling impairs human capital. After the rebound in 2021, global growth is expected to gradually slow to about 3.5 percent into the medium term. The cumulative loss in output relative to the pre-pandemic projected path is projected to grow from 11 trillion over 2020–21 to 28 trillion over 2020–25. This represents a severe setback to the improvement in average living standards across all country groups.

There remains tremendous uncertainty around the outlook with both downside and upside risks. The virus is resurging with localized lockdowns being re-instituted. If this worsens and prospects for treatments and vaccines deteriorate, the toll on economic activity would be severe, and likely amplified by severe financial market turmoil. Growing restrictions on trade and investment and rising geopolitical uncertainty could harm the recovery. On the upside, faster and more widespread availability of tests, treatments, vaccines, and additional policy stimulus can significantly improve outcomes.

More Action is Needed

The considerable global fiscal support of close to $12 trillion and the extensive rate cuts, liquidity injections, and asset purchases by central banks helped saved lives and livelihoods and prevented a financial catastrophe.

There is still much that needs to be done to ensure a sustained recovery. First, greater international collaboration is needed to end this health crisis. Tremendous progress is being made in developing tests, treatments and vaccines, but only if countries work closely together will there be enough production and widespread distribution to all parts of the world. We estimate that if medical solutions can be made available faster and more widely relative to our baseline, it could lead to a cumulative increase in global income of almost $9 trillion by end-2025, raising incomes in all countries and reducing income divergence.

Second, to the extent possible, policies must aggressively focus on limiting persistent economic damage from this crisis. Governments should continue to provide income support through well targeted cash transfers, wage subsidies, and unemployment insurance. To prevent large scale bankruptcies and ensure workers can return to productive jobs, vulnerable but viable firms should continue to receive support—wherever possible—through tax deferrals, moratoria on debt service, and equity-like injections.

Over time, as the recovery strengthens, policies should shift to facilitating reallocation of workers from sectors likely to shrink on a long-term basis (travel) to growing sectors (e-commerce). Workers should be supported through this adjustment with income transfers, retraining, and reskilling. Supporting reallocation will also require steps to speed up bankruptcy procedures and resolution mechanisms to efficiently tackle firm insolvencies. A public green infrastructure investment push in times of low interest rates and high uncertainty can significantly increase jobs and accelerate the recovery, while also serving as an initial big step towards reducing carbon emissions.

Emerging market and developing economies are having to manage this crisis with fewer resources, as many are constrained by elevated debt and higher borrowing costs. These economies will need to prioritize critical spending for health and transfers to the poor and ensure maximum efficiency. They will also need continued support in the form of international grants and concessional financing, and debt relief in some cases. Where debt is unsustainable it should be restructured sooner than later to free up finances to deal with this crisis.

Lastly, policies should be designed with an eye toward placing economies on paths of stronger, equitable, and sustainable growth. The global easing of monetary policy, while essential for the recovery, should be complemented with measures to prevent build-up of financial risks over the medium term, and central bank independence should be safeguarded at all costs. Needed fiscal spending and the output collapse have driven global sovereign debt levels to a record 100 percent of global GDP. While low interest rates alongside the projected rebound in growth in 2021 will stabilize debt levels in many countries, all will benefit from a medium-term fiscal framework to give confidence that debt remains sustainable. In the future, governments will likely need to raise the progressivity of their taxes while ensuring that corporations pay their fair share of taxes, alongside eliminating wasteful spending.

Investments in health, digital infrastructure, green infrastructure, and education can help achieve productive, inclusive, and sustainable growth. And expanding the safety net where gaps exist can ensure the most vulnerable are protected while supporting near-term activity.

This is the worst crisis since the Great Depression, and it will take significant innovation on the policy front, at both the national and international levels to recover from this calamity. The challenges are daunting. But there are reasons to be hopeful. The exceptional policy response, including the establishment of the European Union pandemic recovery package fund and the use of digital technologies to deliver social assistance are a powerful reminder that well-designed policies protect people and collective economic wellbeing. At the IMF, we have provided funding at record speed to 81 members since the start of the pandemic, granted debt relief, and called for extended debt service suspension for low-income countries and for reform of the international debt architecture. Building on these actions, policies for the next stage of the crisis must seek lasting improvements in the global economy that create prosperous futures for all.