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https://www.bis.org/review/r200817g.htm

Mario Marcel: Monetary policy challenges facing emerging countries amid the Covid-19 pandemic

1. The Covid-19 pandemic has unfolded into a global crisis that has left no country unscathed. The economic effects are unprecedented in their origin, size, speed, and simultaneity across the world.

2. While non-pharmacological containment strategies vary across countries given the unknown nature of the virus, almost all of them have included social distancing and lockdown measures that have hit hard on economic activity. Global GDP is likely to lose some 8% to the crisis this year, which will take long to recover-if ever.

3. Economic policy has focused on limiting widening gaps in operational balances of firms and in disposable income of households, with credit called in to cover part of the remaining gap. This would prevent a liquidity problem turning into a solvency one, with the attached string of bankruptcies and long-term unemployment, which would make it much more difficult.