（本文中英文来自国际货币基金组织官网，版权归国际货币基金阻止所有）

https://blogs.imf.org/2020/08/06/covid-19-response-in-emerging-market-economies-conventional-policies-and-beyond/

COVID-19 Response in Emerging Market Economies: Conventional Policies and Beyond

By Martin Mühleisen, Tryggvi Gudmundsson, and Hélène Poirson Ward

The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on emerging market economies far exceeded that of the global financial crisis. Unlike previous crises, the response has been decisive just like in advanced economies. Yet, conventional policies are reaching their limit and unorthodox policies are not without risks.

A pandemic still unfolding

COVID-19 is still to play out fully in the emerging market universe (see chart for country list), posing risks to both people and economies. While countries such as China, Uruguay, and Vietnam have managed to contain the virus, others such as Brazil, India, and South Africa continue to grapple with a rise in infections.

Emerging markets are likely to face an uphill battle.

The economic impact has been even more severe as emerging market economies were buffeted by multiple shocks. Compounding the effects of domestic containment measures has been a decline in external demand. Particularly hit are tourism-dependent countries due to a decline in travel and oil exporters as commodity prices plummeted. With global trade and oil prices projected to drop by more than 10 percent and 40 percent respectively, emerging market economies are likely to face an uphill battle. This is even as capital outflows have stabilized and sovereign spreads retreated compared to the sharply volatile market conditions seen in March.

Not surprisingly, the IMF’s latest June World Economic Outlook Update projects emerging market economies to shrink by 3.2 percent this year—the largest drop for this group on record. By way of comparison, in the global financial crisis, growth for the group took a significant hit but still bottomed out at a positive 2.6 percent in 2009.

A decisive policy response

The crisis would have been worse still without the extraordinary policy support. For sure, decisive policy actions in advanced economies led to a turnaround in market conditions that allowed emerging market economies to resume external financing efforts in April and May, which contributed to record levels of bond issuance so far this year—to the tune of $124 billion as of the end of June. But not all countries have seen improved fortunes. Fuel exporters, frontier countries and those with high debt are experiencing a greater financial shock that pushed up borrowing costs, or even worse, denied them further access to markets.

Policy support by advanced economies provided emerging market economy policymakers with wiggle room to soften the economic blow. Unlike previous episodes, where emerging market economies tended to tighten policy to avoid rapid capital outflows and the inflationary effect of exchange rate depreciations, the current crisis has seen emerging market economies’ policy reaction more in line with that of advanced economies (see the IMF’s policy tracker). Most emerging market economies used reserve buffers more sparingly and allowed exchange rates to adjust to a larger extent, while many countries injected liquidity as needed to ensure market functioning. Countries like Poland and Indonesia further eased macroprudential policies to support credit.

Like their more advanced peers, many emerging market economies, including Thailand, Mexico, and South Africa, eased monetary policy during this cycle. In a few cases, limited room to cut policy rates further and distressed market conditions induced use of unconventional monetary policy measures for the first time. These included purchases of government and corporate bonds, although the amounts remain modest so far compared to the larger advanced economies. Conversely, the use of capital flow measures to deter capital outflows has been quite limited so far.

A similar picture is evident on the fiscal policy front. Emerging market economies have relaxed their fiscal stance in an attempt to tackle the health crisis, support people and firms, and offset the economic shocks. While more modest than that of advanced economies, these efforts were significantly greater than during the global financial crisis.

From conventional to unorthodox policies

Despite these actions, the outlook for emerging market economies remains clouded by considerable uncertainty. Chief among many risks is the possibility of a more prolonged health crisis, which would hurt more lives and could have dire economic consequences. Confronting a more severe downturn will be challenging because most emerging markets entered the current crisis with limited room for traditional fiscal, monetary, and external policy support. And much policy room has already been used up by actions undertaken in recent months.

Dwindling policy space may force some countries to take recourse to more unorthodox measures. From price controls and trade restrictions to more unconventional monetary policy and steps to ease credit and financial regulation. Some of these measures—which are also being implemented by some advanced and low-income economies—have significant costs, particularly if used intensively. Export restrictions, for example, could seriously distort the multilateral trading system, and price controls hamper the flow of goods to those who need it most.

The effectiveness of other unorthodox policies will depend on the credibility of the institutions; for instance, whether a country has a track record of credible monetary policy. As we navigate the contours of the ongoing crisis, little time is available to properly analyze the risks and benefits of these actions in a careful manner.

Not out of the woods yet

Emerging market economies have navigated the first phase of the crisis relatively well, but the next phase could be much more challenging. The virus remains present, financial conditions are still fragile, and policy space is lower, particularly for those countries facing high risks to debt sustainability. The latter group of countries is quite large. Approximately one third of all emerging market economies entered the crisis with high-debt levels and are assessed to have no space for undertaking additional discretionary fiscal policy, or as having that space significantly at risk.

As the crisis develops, there is also a high risk that liquidity problems morph into solvency concerns. Besides sovereign debt stresses, corporate default risks are alarmingly high in a number of emerging market economies. Moreover, the crisis has hit poor people much harder, and this increase in inequality will amplify policy challenge in many countries.

The complexity of these challenges requires a multi-faceted policy response. First, domestic policies will need to be designed to allow for more durable and inclusive growth. Second, increased support from bilateral and multilateral lenders will be required where market access remains precarious. So far, the IMF has provided 22 emerging market economies with approximately $72 billion (SDR 52 billion) in financial assistance. Finally, for countries where debts prove to be unsustainable, timely and durable resolution of these problems will be needed, by seeking broad burden sharing across creditors including in the private sector. The latter two policy angles will be analyzed in two subsequent blogs on IMF lending and the IMF’s role in debt resolution.

https://www.imf.org/zh/News/Articles/2020/08/06/blog-covid-19-response-in-emerging-market-economies-conventional-policies-and-beyond

新兴市场经济体应对新型冠状病毒：传统政策及其他政策

作者：Martin Mühleisen、Tryggvi Gudmundsson和Hélène Poirson Ward

2020年8月6日

新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）疫情对新兴市场经济体的经济影响远远超出了全球金融危机的影响。不同于此前的危机，新兴市场经济体采取了类似于发达经济体的果断应对措施。然而，传统政策已达到其极限，而非传统政策则伴随着风险。

疫情仍在蔓延

在新兴市场中，新型冠状病毒仍在全面爆发中（国家名单见表），这对民众和国家经济都构成风险。虽然中国、乌拉圭、越南等国控制住了病毒，但巴西、印度、南非等其他国家仍在努力应对感染病例攀升的问题。

新兴市场经济体在多重冲击中屡次受创，经济受到的影响更为严重。外部需求减少也加剧了国内防控措施的影响。由于出行减少、大宗商品价格暴跌，依赖旅游业的国家和石油出口国尤其受到打击。在全球贸易量和油价预计将分别下降超过10%和40%的背景下，新兴市场经济体可能面临艰难挑战。与三月急剧波动的市场条件相比，即使资本流出企稳、主权债利差下降，上述问题依然存在。

不出所料，国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》6月最新预测显示，新兴市场经济体GDP预计今年将萎缩3.2%——这是新兴市场经济体有记录以来的最大降幅。相比之下，在全球金融危机期间，这组经济体的经济增长受到沉重打击，但仍能触底反弹，2009年实现了2.6%的增长。

果断的政策应对

若未采取非传统政策支持措施，危机可能变得更糟糕。 显然，发达经济体果断的政策行动使得市场条件出现好转，新兴市场经济体得以在 4月和5月恢复外部融资，这促成今年截至目前的债券发行规模创下纪录——截至六月底共计1240亿美元。然而，也有一些国家的命运未见改观。燃料出口国、前沿国家和债务高企的国家正面临更严重的金融冲击，推升了它们的借款成本，更糟糕的是使其无法继续获得市场融资。

发达经济体的政策支持为新兴市场经济体的政策制定者提供了减缓经济冲击的回旋余地。在此前危机中，新兴市场经济体往往收紧政策以避免资本迅速流出以及汇率贬值的通胀效应；而本次危机有所不同，新兴市场经济体的政策应对与发达经济体更加相符（见国际货币基金组织政策追踪）。多数新兴市场经济体更加节制地使用储备缓冲，允许汇率在更大程度上进行调整，同时很多国家根据需要注入流动性，以确保市场运转。波兰、印度尼西亚等国进一步放松了宏观审慎政策，以支持信贷发放。

与更发达的经济体相比，很多新兴市场经济体（包括泰国、墨西哥和南非）在当前周期中放松了货币政策。在少数几个国家，进一步下调政策利率的空间有限，且市场陷入困境，这促使当局首次动用了非传统货币政策措施。这包括购买政府和公司债券，尽管与更大型的发达经济体相比，其购买规模仍然较小。相反，截至目前，使用相关资本流动措施阻止资本流出的做法相当有限。在财政政策方面，类似的情况也十分显著。很多新兴市场经济体已放松财政政策立场，旨在应对卫生危机，为民众和公司提供支持，并抵消经济冲击。虽然其财政立场相比发达经济体更加温和，但财政措施的规模远大于全球金融危机时期。

从传统政策转向非传统政策

尽管采取了这些行动，新兴市场经济体的经济前景仍因巨大的不确定性而蒙上阴影。在诸多风险中，首要风险是卫生危机可能更加旷日持久，这将使更多民众受到伤害并可能带来严重的经济后果。应对更严重的经济下滑将充满挑战，因为在当前危机来临之时，多数新兴市场传统的财政、货币和对外政策支持空间就比较有限。而且，近几个月采取的行动已经耗尽了很大的政策空间。

政策空间缩小可能迫使一些国家诉诸于更加非传统的措施。这包括价格管制、贸易限制措施、更加非传统的货币政策以及放松信贷和金融监管的措施。部分措施——一些发达和低收入经济体也在实施——伴随着巨额成本，若密集实施成本尤其高昂。例如，出口限制措施可能严重扭曲多边贸易体系，同时价格管制会阻碍商品流向需求最迫切的国家。

其他非传统政策的有效性将取决于制度公信力；例如，一个国家是否具有可信的货币政策记录。在应对当前危机过程中，我们几乎没时间谨慎而恰当地分析这些行动的风险和益处。

尚未度过危机

新兴市场经济体已相对较好地度过了危机的第一阶段，但下一阶段的挑战性可能大得多。病毒仍在肆虐，金融条件依然脆弱，政策空间日益缩小，尤其是那些面临较高债务可持续性风险的国家。后一组涵盖的国家相当多。在所有新兴市场经济体中，约1/3的经济体在危机之初已然债台高筑，且根据评估已没有空间采取额外的相机财政政策，或者政策空间面临重大风险。

随着危机演进，它们还面临流动性问题转变为偿付能力担忧的巨大风险。除了主权债务压力，多个新兴市场经济体的公司违约风险也高得令人担忧。此外，危机对穷人的打击更严重，这种不平等的加剧将放大很多国家面临的政策挑战。

这些挑战的复杂性需要多方面的政策应对。第一，国内政策设计需要考虑到实现更持久和更具包容性的经济增长。第二，市场融资渠道不够稳定的国家需要双边和多边贷款方提供更多支持。截至目前，国际货币基金组织已经为22个新兴市场经济体提供了约720亿美元（520亿SDR）的资金援助。最后， 对于已证实债务不可持续的国家，需要通过在包括私人部门等债权人之间寻求广泛的负担分摊，及时且长期性地解决这些问题。接下来两篇关于国际货币基金组织贷款和国际货币基金组织在债务处置中的作用的博客文章将分析后两个政策角度。

*****

Martin Mühleisen 是国际货币基金组织战略、政策及检查部（SPR）主任。在担任该职务期间，他牵头开展了国际货币基金组织战略方向的相关工作，以及国际货币基金组织政策的设计、实施和评估。他还负责监督国际货币基金组织与其他国际机构（如二十国集团和联合国）的往来工作。

Tryggvi Gudmundsson 是国际货币基金组织战略、政策及检查部（SPR）经济学家，负责宏观经济政策问题。此前，他在国际货币基金组织伦敦代表处从事全球金融市场工作，也曾任职于欧洲部和货币与资本市场部。他的研究侧重于一系列宏观金融问题。在加入国际货币基金组织之前，Tryggvi曾在中央银行、对冲基金和投资银行等地方任职。他拥有伦敦政治经济学院的博士学位。

Hélène Poirson Ward 是国际货币基金组织战略、政策及检查部副处长，牵头开展宏观政策问题的相关工作，包括财政空间、非传统货币政策和溢出效应。此前，她曾在欧洲部任职，负责法国和德国的国别工作；也曾在亚太部任职，负责印度和马来西亚的国别工作。她的研究方向是外债和经济增长，汇率制度选择、金融全球化、经济增长和金融溢出效应以及使用多种政策工具管理外部波动性。