IMF：当前是全新的“布雷顿森林体系时刻”
（中英文来自IMF官网）
https://www.imf.org/zh/News/Articles/2020/10/15/sp101520-a-new-bretton-woods-moment
全新的布雷顿森林体系时刻
国际货币基金组织总裁 克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃
华盛顿特区
2020年10月15日
一、引言：“人类的兄妹情谊”
首先，我想感谢Ernest Kwamina Addison博士的精彩演讲以及作为国际货币基金组织（IMF）理事会主席所作的贡献。
为了思索世界去年发生的巨变，我访问了新罕布什尔州的布雷顿森林，44位创始人于1944年在此签署了IMF《协定》。当时，他们面临两个艰巨使命：一是应对战后的满目疮痍；二是为建设更加和平和繁荣的战后世界奠定基础。
会议闭幕时，约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯 指出了国际合作对给世界带来希望有多么的重要。他说：“如果我们继续前进…人类的兄弟情谊将不会是空谈。”
在我们期待并欢迎安道尔成为第190个成员国之际，IMF的工作见证了人类兄妹情谊建立的基础——合作和团结的价值。
今天，我们面临全新的布雷顿森林体系“时刻”。新冠疫情夺去了一百多万人的生命，
经济灾难将使今年的世界经济萎缩4.4%，使2021年之前的产出预计减少11万亿美元。几十年来第一次出现的大规模经济破坏和贫困加剧给人类带来难以形容的绝望。
我们也面临两个艰巨的使命：对抗当前危机，以及构建更美好的未来。
我们知道当下必须采取哪些行动。只有战胜疫情，才能实现持久的经济复苏。我们必须继续将卫生防疫措施作为工作重点——我呼吁各国为有效疗法和疫苗的生产和分发提供支持，以确保所有国家都能获取。
同时，我呼吁各国继续为工人和企业提供支持，直到卫生危机永久性消退。
全球各国已实施12万亿美元规模的财政刺激。主要央行资产负债表扩大了7.5万亿美元。这些同步的措施防范了此前危机中具有破坏性的宏观金融反馈。
但几乎所有的国家都仍在遭受冲击，尤其是新兴市场和发展中经济体。虽然全球银行体系在危机前已建立了大规模资本和流动性缓冲，但很多新兴市场有一些位于尾部的脆弱银行。我们必须采取措施防范中期金融风险的累积。
我把当前境遇称为“全球经济的漫长攀行”：一次艰难坎坷、充满不确定且极易遭受挫折的攀登之旅。
但这是向上的攀行。我们将有机会解决一些长期性的问题，如生产率低下、经济增长缓慢、不平等现象严重和气候危机日益逼近。我们可以做得更好，不仅仅是重建疫情之前的世界，而是放眼未来，构建更具韧性、更可持续和更加包容的世界。
我们必须抓住这一全新的布雷顿森林体系时刻。
二、放眼未来：三个“必须”
如何实现呢？我认为必须做到三点：
第一，必须制定正确的经济政策。 布雷顿森林体系建立之时的情况现在依然成立：审慎的宏观经济政策和强有力的制度对于经济增长、就业和提高生活水平至关重要。
普适的政策并不存在，必须根据各国需要进行调整。支持措施仍有必要持续一段时间——过早撤回可能造成严重和不必要的经济损失。恰当的支持形式将取决于危机发展的阶段。一般来说，危机早期应提供相对广泛的支持，并随着各国经济开始复苏转向更具针对性的支持措施。
强有力的中期货币、财政和金融政策框架以及旨在促进贸易活动、提高竞争力和生产率的改革措施有助于为当前的政策行动创造信心，同时为未来构建亟需的经济韧性。
这包括密切关注高企的公共债务带来的风险。我们预计2021年全球债务水平将显著上升，发达经济体债务与GDP的比重达到约125%，新兴市场达到65%，低收入国家达到50%。
IMF正与世界银行一道，为最贫穷的成员国提供债务减免；我们支持延长G20“暂停偿债倡议”。
除此之外，债务不可持续的国家应该毫不拖延地进行债务重组。为此，我们需要加强债务透明度和 债权人协调 。同时，G20对“主权债务处置共同框架”以及我们呼吁的改善主权债务处置架构（包括私人部门参与）展开讨论，令我感到鼓舞。
我们致力于服务成员国——为其政策提供支持。
第二个 “必须”是政策必须以人为本。
为了充分发挥稳健经济政策的好处，我们必须增加对人力的投资。这意味着保护脆弱群体，也意味着提升人力和实体资本以支持经济的增长与韧性。
新冠疫情凸显出健全的卫生体系的重要性。
不断加剧的不平等现象和快速的技术变化需要健全的教育和培训体系——其能提供更多机会并缩小差距。
加快推动性别平等可能成为全球性的变革因素。对于性别不平等最严重的国家，推动性别平等能使GDP平均增长35%。
此外，投资于年轻人就是投资于我们的未来。我们需要为年轻人提供医疗服务和教育，并为他们提供互联网，因为这能使他们接触到数字经济——这对于未来的经济增长和发展至关重要。
若撒哈拉以南非洲使用互联网的人口增加10%，实际人均GDP增速会提高4个百分点之多。
数字化也有助于实现普惠金融，成为战胜贫困的有力工具。
正如疫情所示，我们不能继续忽视卫生防护措施，也承担不起继续无视气候变化的后果， 这是我想说的第三个“必须”。
我们关注气候变化问题，因为它对于宏观经济非常关键，对经济的增长与繁荣构成了严重威胁。它也对民众和地球至关重要。
在过去十年中，气候相关灾难已导致总计约1.3万亿美元 的直接损失。如果我们不希望这场卫生危机爆发，我们也不会希望气候危机爆发。
我们的研究显示，绿色投资和提高碳价的恰当政策组合能帮助我们在2050年之前实现零排放，并创造数百万个新的工作岗位。
我们面临着一个历史机遇——让世界变得更加环保，更加繁荣、就业岗位更为充裕。
在低利率环境中，当前正确的投资能在未来释放四重红利 ：规避未来损失，刺激经济增长，挽救生命并为所有人带来社会和环境效益。
三、 IMF 的职能
在各国适应气候变化、数字化加速发展和知识经济崛起带来的结构性转型之际，我们正在孜孜不倦地为实现持久的复苏和 强韧的未来提供支持。
自疫情暴发以来，我们的贷款承诺已超过1000亿美元；我们一万亿美元的总贷款能力中仍剩余大量资金。
我们将继续特别关注新兴市场和低收入国家（尤其是小型和脆弱国家）的紧迫需求，帮助它们支付医生和护士薪酬，并保护最脆弱的民众和经济部门。
正是因为成员国慷慨解囊，我们才得以采取空前的行动。新借款安排翻倍和新一轮双边借款安排有助于维持我们的资金实力。很多成员国还挺身而出，为控灾减灾信托和减贫与增长信托提供了必要的出资。
因此，我们得以通过债务减免为低收入成员国提供支持，并将优惠贷款规模扩大两倍。我们正在与成员国合作，进一步提升优惠贷款供应能力，调整贷款工具箱，并加大对能力建设的支持力度。
IMF工作人员夜以继日地工作，在本次危机中表现非常出色。在此，我要向全体工作人员和我的管理团队表示衷心感谢。
同时，我也向各位执董致以深深的谢意，在过去六个月中，他们为IMF工作的每个环节提供了鼎力支持。
四、结语：把握此刻
对于在疫情中不幸丧生的人们，最好的纪念方式就是构建凯恩斯所说的“更伟大的事物”，即建设一个更可持续和更加平等的世界。
我们的创始人做到了。现在轮到我们了。这正是属于我们的时刻！
现在，我很荣幸介绍我的朋友，IMF的一位重要伙伴：世界银行集团行长戴维马尔帕斯。
英文原文：
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/10/15/sp101520-a-new-bretton-woods-moment
A New Bretton Woods Moment
By Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director
Washington, DC
October 15, 2020
1. Introduction: ‘A sisterhood and brotherhood of humanity’
I first want to thank Dr. Ernest Kwamina Addison for his excellent remarks and contributions as Chairman of the IMF’s Board of Governors.
Reflecting on the dramatic change in the world over the last year, I paid a visit to the Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, where 44 men signed our Articles of Agreement in 1944. Our founders faced two massive tasks: to deal with the immediate devastation caused by the War; and to lay the foundation for a more peaceful and prosperous postwar world.
At the conclusion of the conference John Maynard Keynes captured the significance of international cooperation as hope for the world. “If we can continue…The brotherhood of man will have become more than a phrase", he said.
As we look forward to welcoming Andorra as our 190th member, the work of the IMF is testament to the values of cooperation and solidarity on which a sisterhood and brotherhood of humanity is built.
Today we face a new Bretton Woods “moment.” A pandemic that has already cost more than a million lives. An economic calamity that will make the world economy 4.4 % smaller this year and strip an estimated $11 trillion of output by next year. And untold human desperation in the face of huge disruption and rising poverty for the first time in decades.
Once again, we face two massive tasks: to fight the crisis today— and build a better tomorrow.
We know what action must be taken right now. A durable economic recovery is only possible if we beat the pandemic. Health measures must remain a priority—I urge you to support production and distribution of effective therapies and vaccines to ensure that all countries have access.
I also urge you to continue support for workers and businesses until a durable exit from the health crisis.
We have seen global fiscal actions of $12 trillion. Major central banks have expanded balance sheets by $7.5 trillion. These synchronized measures have prevented the destructive macro-financial feedback we saw in previous crises.
But almost all countries are still hurting, especially emerging market and developing economies. And while the global banking system entered the crisis with high capital and liquidity buffers, there is a weak tail of banks in many in emerging markets. We must take measures to prevent the build-up of financial risks over the medium term.
We face what I have called a Long Ascent for the global economy: a climb that will be difficult, uneven, uncertain—and prone to setbacks.
But it is a climb up. And we will have a chance to address some persistent problems — low productivity, slow growth, high inequalities, a looming climate crisis. We can do better than build back the pre-pandemic world – we can build forward to a world that is more resilient, sustainable, and inclusive.
We must seize this new Bretton Woods moment.
2. Building Forward: Three Imperatives
How? I see three imperatives:
First, the right economic policies. What was true at Bretton Woods remains true today. Prudent macroeconomic policies and strong institutions are critical for growth, jobs, and improved living standards.
One size does not fit all—policies must be tailored to individual country needs. Support remains essential for some time—withdrawing it too early risks grave and unwarranted economic harm. The stage of the crisis will determine the appropriate shape of this support, generally broader early on and more targeted as countries begin to recover.
Strong medium-term frameworks for monetary, fiscal and financial policies, as well as reforms to boost trade, competitiveness and productivity can help create confidence for policy action now while building much-needed resilience for the future.
That includes keeping a careful watch on risks presented by elevated public debt. We expect 2021 debt levels to go up significantly – to around 125 percent of GDP in advanced economies, 65 percent of GDP in emerging markets; and 50 percent of GDP in low-income countries.
The Fund is providing debt relief to its poorest members and, with the World Bank, we support extension by the G20 of the Debt Service Suspension Initiative.
Beyond this, where debt is unsustainable, it should be restructured without delay. We should move towards greater debt transparency and enhanced creditor coordination. I am encouraged by G20 discussions on a Common framework for Sovereign Debt Resolution as well as on our call for improving the architecture for sovereign debt resolution, including private sector participation.
We are there for our member countries—supporting their policies.
And policies must be for people —my second imperative.
To reap the full benefits of sound economic policy, we must invest more in people. That means protecting the vulnerable. It also means boosting human and physical capital to underpin growth and resilience.
COVID19 has underscored the importance of strong health systems.
Rising inequality and rapid technological change demand strong education and training systems—to increase opportunity and reduce disparities.
Accelerating gender equality can be a global game-changer. For the most unequal countries, closing the gender gap could increase GDP by an average of 35 percent.
And investing in our young people is investing in our future. They need access to health and education, and also access to the internet—because that gives them access to the digital economy – so critical for growth and development in the future.
Expanding internet access in Sub Saharan Africa by 10 percent of the population could increase real per capita GDP growth by as much as 4 percentage points.
Digitalization also helps with financial inclusion as a powerful tool to help overcome poverty.
Just as the pandemic has shown that we can no longer ignore health precautions, we can no longer afford to ignore climate change—my third imperative.
We focus on climate change because it is macro-critical, posing profound threats to growth and prosperity. It is also people-critical and planet-critical.
In the last decade, direct damage from climate-related disasters adds up to around $1.3 trillion. If we don’t like this health crisis, we will not like the climate crisis one iota.
Our research shows that, with the right mix of green investment and higher carbon prices, we can steer toward zero emissions by 2050 and help create millions of new jobs.
We have an historic opportunity to build a greener world—also a more prosperous and job-rich one. With low interest rates, the right investments today can yield a quadruple dividend tomorrow: avert future losses, spur economic gains, save lives and deliver social and environmental benefits for everyone.
3. The IMF’s Role
At the Fund, we are working tirelessly to support a durable recovery— and a resilient future as countries adapt to structural transformations brought on by climate change, digital acceleration and the rise of the knowledge economy.
Since the pandemic began, we have committed over $100 billion—and we still have substantial resources from our $1 trillion in lending capacity.
We will continue to pay special attention to the urgent needs of emerging markets and low-income countries—especially small and fragile states, helping them to pay doctors and nurses and protect the most vulnerable people and parts of their economies.
Our unprecedented action was only possible thanks to our members’ generous support. The doubling of the New Arrangements to Borrow and a new round of bilateral borrowing arrangements preserves this financial firepower. Members have also stepped up with essential contributions to our Catastrophe Containment – and Relief and Poverty Reduction and Growth—Trusts.
This has allowed us to support our low-income members with debt relief and to triple our concessional lending. We are engaging with members to further boost our concessional lending capacity adapt our lending toolkit and increase support for capacity development.
IMF staff, working day and night, have been magnificent in this crisis. My sincere thanks to them and my Management team.
My deep appreciation also to our Executive Directors – they have been there every step of the way over the past six months.
4. Conclusion: Seize the Moment
The best memorial we can build to those who have lost their lives in this crisis is, in the words of Keynes, “that bigger thing”— building a more sustainable and equitable world.
Our founders did it. It is now our turn. This is our moment!
Now it’s my pleasure to introduce my friend, and great partner to the IMF: President David Malpass of the World Bank Group.
